Goalie Voodoo, Week 5 November 12, 2016  |  Ben Benwell


Goalie Voodoo, Week 5

Jimmy Howard’s hot start has delayed Petr Mrazek’s take over of Detroit’s net

Goalie Voodoo, Week 5

Welcome to Goalie Voodoo, Week 5. As goalie play can be difficult to predict, this article will take a look at the various goaltending situations around the league. We’ll focus on some opportunities to follow and situations to avoid, as well as take a peek at streaming targets for the upcoming weekend.

Goalie Voodoo, Week 5

 

Mixing it up in Motown

When Jimmy Howard faltered for Detroit last year, Petr Mrazek finished usurping the role of starting goalie for the Detroit Red Wings. Outside a few games down the stretch, Mrazek was a key factor in getting Detroit in to the big dance. His 5v5 save percentage put him in some good company, and Howard became expendable during the offseason.

With the benefit of the doubt to start 2016-17, Mrazek has had an inauspicious start. His all situation save percentage is just .904 in nine games, while his adjusted 5v5 save percetenage is .923. That should indicate some improvement for Mrazek, but at this point, Howard has put a sizable dent into Mrazek’s market share.

Howard’s numbers are superior right now, but he has been trending in the wrong direction the past few years. Some more time in net for Howard should normalize his numbers while giving Mrazek a mental break, and in the end, Mrazek’s numbers are set to improve and surpass Howard. Don’t go chasing Howard’s hot start, and hold tight with Mrazek.

Calm in Carolina?

Well, Cam Ward is certainly starting his season off right. Think about that for a second as his overall season save percentage is just .898. Some major blowups have really made Ward’s numbers crooked, but he’s been mostly dependable over the past two weeks.

Let’s clarify that nobody is advocating for Ward as a sterling fantasy asset. At this stage of his career, he is not. However, the Hurricanes have proven that they can limit the shot attempts against at 5v5, and some league average goaltending could be pumped up as something more with a decent team context.

Keep Ward’s name in mind in daily fantasy games and as a streaming target. Of course, his meltdown potential reaches Chernobyl levels at times, but he’s matchup dependent useful. With Eddie Lack turning out to be a bust for the Hurricanes, Ward will continue to hold the fort in Raleigh.

Change in Colorado

It’s been a long run for Semyon Varlamov in Colorado, but the coaching change this past summer, he seems due to be phased out. Calvin Pickard has been playing well for the last two season in spot duty, and Varlamov isn’t helping his own cause in 2016. Through eight games, Varlamov is stopping just 88% of the shots he faces.

The odd thing is that the Avalanche defense – and team, as a whole – has tightened up from prior years. For a simple comparison (with a small sample size disclaimer), the Avalanche have a Corsi-Allowed/60 at 5v5 of 54.96 this year, whereas last year that same number was a league high 63.42.

At 5v5 (adjusted), Varlamov has the worst save percentage in the league, and he’s pretty far off the median. With Calvin Pickard sitting at .923 in all situations an four years younger than Varlamov, don’t be surprised if Pickard takes over the crease before too long.

 

[adinserter name=”RotoBaller Banner 2″]

 

Week 5 Weekend Streaming Targets

 

Saturday, November 12

After a grueling battle in Chicago last night, look for Washington to take out their frustrations on the Hurricanes in Carolina. Philipp Grubauer may not face a ton of volume, but that’s okay at his price. He should get some offensive support and the ‘Canes have slowed down some in recent weeks.

Sunday, November 13

Keeping with the theme of going all-in on Sundays, consider Antti Niemi of the Stars as Dallas visits Vancouver. Though the Canucks have been a bit spunky over their past few games, they are still a seriously talent-deficient forward group. The Stars should win the game and Niemi may actually push his save percentage towards .900.

Thanks for reading Goalie Voodoo, Week 5

Leave a Reply

Fantasy Hockey

DFS NHL – The Daily Cycle – February 28th

In this segment I will take a look at four different sections; the Vegas lines, the top line stacks of the night, the top value plays of the night, and my top three goalie options. Vegas Lines (All Vegas lines are taken from Bodog Sports)   NYI at MTL (-125) – O/U – 6 BUF ...

READ MORE

DFS NHL – The Daily Cycle – February 27th

In this segment I will take a look at four different sections; the Vegas lines, the top line stacks of the night, the top value plays of the night, and my top three goalie options. Vegas Lines (All Vegas lines are taken from Bodog Sports) CAR at BOS (-180) – O/U – 5.5 NJD ...

READ MORE

DFS NHL – The Daily Cycle – February 26th

Welcome to the first installment of the 2017-2018 NHL season! We, at the FakeSports are excited to welcome back NHL to our segments! In this segment we will take a look at four different sections; the Vegas lines, the top line stacks of the night, the top value plays of ...

READ MORE