The One Time Shot (NHL GPP): February 16, 2017
February 16, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Opening Ceremonies
You can find The One Time Shot on most Thursdays and Saturdays for the entire NHL season. I’m also writing a weekly column that will post Monday that is similar my Next Week’s Values Today article where I look at some contrarian plays that might make their way into your lineup during the next seven days. Of course, I’ll be on Twitter all the time to answer any questions you may have and to give my thoughts on that night’s slate.
I invented a stat (let me live my dream). It’s called SABS. SABS stands for “shots and blocked shots.” It’s a stat I use to help me justify my defensive picks. I think it’s fetch. I’m also trying to make fetch happen. I think it’s important you know this because I say SABS a lot when I write.
Once again, thank you for coming along for the ride. Now on to the picks!
The Starting Lineup – Stacks
The Game Stack
Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
I know, I know, it’s a very obvious game stack but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be an effective game stack. It’s really hard to look past a game that has a 6.0 Vegas total. That doesn’t happen often in hockey and we have to take advantage of it. As usual with these high total games, there are a number of ways we can attack this. I think the best way is to go pretty straightforward. For both teams that means looking at power play lines since neither squad is very good at killing off penalties; both give up goals more than 20% of the time when the other team has the man advantage. For the Jets that means going with Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Mark Scheifele.
With the Penguins, I might want to save a little bit of cash so I’ll avoid the big boy line and instead stack Chris Kunitz, Justin Schultz, and Jake Guentzel (or Nick Bonino if you want a higher floor but lower ceiling; SABS are a beautiful thing when you get the from forwards).
The Back-to-Back Attack
Vancouver Canucks @ St Louis Blues (Jake Allen – expected goalie)
Edmonton Oilers vs Philadelphia Flyers (Steve Mason – expected goalie)
Both Vancouver and Edmonton are facing teams that are on the second night of a back to back. Normally I love stacking against teams in this position, although I will caution you that the backup goalies played last night for both STL and PHI so you’re not going to be able to take full advantage. That said, defenders are still going to be tired and teams just play worse in this situation. Obviously you’re going to feel a lot more comfortable using a team like Edmonton with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Patrick Maroon but don’t discount the GPP sneakiness of the Canucks.
Vancouver doesn’t put up a lot of goals but they don’t really need to with how inexpensively you can stack them. If you jump down to the Brendan Gaunce, Alexandre Burrows, Jannik Hansen line you don’t need more than a couple of goals to make back the salary you have to pay for them. I never like to see players get injured but if Bo Horvat is out once again tonight you really get a nice salary savings by using Gaunce (and if Horvat does play, you get the increase in talent so it’s a win-win situation). While Gaunce didn’t score on Tuesday when replacing Horvat, he did manage to accumulate 5 SABS which is a very nice total for his price. Burrows and Hansen continue to be aggressive offensively and with their volume of shots they are putting themselves in position to pay off for you even if they don’t hit for a huge game.
The Bad Goalie Bruisers
Minnesota Wild vs Dallas Stars (Kari Lehtonen – expected goalie)
Buffalo Sabres vs Colorado Avalanche (Calvin Pickard – expected goalie)
Poor game against Anaheim aside, Minnesota has been rock solid on offense recently. Tonight they get a home game against Kari Lehtonen, a goalie who has given up 3+ goals in four of his last six starts. That trend is going to continue to night and the line to attack with is the power play line of Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter, and Jason Pominville. Each of these players is averaging a point or more per game over their last ten games (33 total points). Dallas can’t stop anyone so this has the makings of a very high scoring game for the Wild.
As for the Sabres, well, I’ll take anyone against the Avalanche on the road. It sure helps that Buffalo has been playing well lately. I’m going to try to save a little bit of money on offense so I’ll go with Matt Moulson (as long as Evander Kane remains out of the lineup), Jack Eichel, and Rasmus Ristolainen. By using the defender here you are raising your floor with his high level of SABS to offset the inconsistent play of Moulson.
Arizona Coyotes @ Los Angeles Kings (Peter Budaj – expected goalie)
I love Peter Budaj. He’s been so good for me this year and he so rarely gets blow out. On the other hand, the Coyotes are playing very well right now offensively and they are very overlooked. They haven’t let me down in about a week and I’m going to continue to ride that streak as long as they keep putting up goals (3.5 goals per game in their six February games, including a 3.33 goals per game average in their three road games). Could this pick blow up in my face?
Well, yeah, it’s the Coyotes, duh! Remember, though, that we are looking at GPP’s and we have to take some risks. I’m willing to take that risk with Martin Hanzal (four points in his last three games), Max Domi (5 points in his last four games), and Radim Vrbata (3 points/11 SOG in his last three games). They are a really cheap stack with a ton of upside and a very low ownership. I love that in a GPP!
3 Stars of the Night – HuLo players (High upside, Low ownership)
Matt Moulson (BUF): Even if you’re not going to use a Buffalo stack, I still think Moulson is worth a long look if Evander Kane is not in the lineup. On Tuesday night, while replacing Kane, Moulson had one point and six SABS in 15 minutes of ice time (more than double his usual output). With the Avs on the schedule tonight, it’s very likely that he’ll put himself in position to have another solid game for his rock bottom price. If Kane ends up playing, ignore everything I said and run far away quickly.
Kenny Agostino (STL): Maybe this is the kid who is going to replace the production lost by Robby Fabbri. He’s scored 3 points in his last five games, is skating on the power play, is on the ice for about 14 minutes per game, and he’s totaling a high volume of shots on goal (13 SOG in his first five games, 12 in this first three games). He’s really cheap and if you pair him with Ivan Barvashev you can get a recently productive STL stack for less than the price of a player like Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid.
Jason Chimera (NYI): We’ve seen Chimera do well in the past despite his poor season in 2016-17. Recently he’s turned his game around with three goals over his last four games (including nine SOG). For a guy that’s not skating on a power play line that’s pretty decent production. If you use Chimera, you are basically banking on him putting one past Henrik Lundqvist. That’s not the best of matchups but he’s cheap and if he gets that one goal then you’ve made out well with your pick.
The Blue Line – Defensemen to target
Dan Girardi (NYR): Girardi has been in and out of the Rangers lineup but on Monday night he did very well for himself in his 16+ minutes on the ice. He not only recorded a point but he also accumulated 5 SABS. The Islanders are one of the most generous teams in the NHL to opposing defenders and Girardi is dirt cheap. Even if he only were to match his SABS total from Monday he’d hit his value. I think there’s potential for him to do more given this matchup.
Oscar Klefbom (EDM): It has been Klefbom, and not Andrej Sekera, who has been the better fantasy defender over the last couple of weeks for Edmonton. The Oilers have a very good matchup tonight at home against the Flyers. While I don’t expect Klefbom to match his three point outburst from his last game, I do think he can put up another point and collect 3+ SABS against a shot-happy PHI. He’s still priced very reasonably and would make a nice addition to any EDM stack.
Jacob Trouba (WPG): Trouba has been a beast for the Jets as of late. Over his last 10 games he has seven points and a ridiculous 57 SABS. Tonight’s game against the Penguins is the highest projected total on the board so there will be plenty of opportunity for Trouba to continue to take shots, block shots, and score points.
Alexander Edler (VAN): If I’m going to jump on the Canucks tonight, I might as well use their most prolific defender as well. I have a strong feeling that STL is going to struggle tonight on the second night of a back to back and I want to get some inexpensive exposure to Vancouver. Edler is actually the most expensive player I’m targeting there but he’s still reasonable. He’s recorded a point in four of his last five games and over that time he’s gotten 21 SABS (4.2 per game). That’s great production for a player at his price point.
Between the Pipes – Goalies to target
Cam Talbot (Edmonton Oilers vs PHI)
Besides being a pretty decent goalie (2.13 GAA over his last ten starts), Talbot gets to face a Philly squad on the second night of a back to back. Teams tend to play poorly in general when they are on the dreaded Western Canada road trip but on those back to backs they are really worn down. I know that there is some risk with the high end players that Philly brings to the table but they are slumping right now (seven goals over their last six games) on top of the back to back situation they are in. This just feels like one of those games where the Flyers are going to come out flat and get rolled up on. Even at his high price I like love Talbot tonight.
Ryan Miller (Vancouver Canucks @ STL)
Miller has really struggled recently but I’m going to give him a shot because STL is on the second game of a back to back; one in which they had to travel after last night’s game. In a good matchup last night the Blues only scored two goals. They’re currently riding a five game win streak but this is game feels like a trap for them. There really isn’t much data to back this pick up other than the back-to-back and that this is a GPP. We’ve seen Miller be a good goalie before and this matchup feels right. If you play enough DFS, sometimes you can’t verbalize why a matchup works for you but you just have the hunch. I have that hunch here.
Robin Lehner (Buffalo Sabres vs COL)
Colorado is pretty bad NHL hockey team. They can put a few in the net with their top line but past that they are probably the least talented team in the league. With the offense playing better right now for Buffalo, Lehner can withstand a few goals and still be in line for a win. Lehner is solid, if unspectacular, at home (6-9-3, 2.38 GAA, .928 save percentage). In a matchup like this, that’s pretty much all you’re going to need. Vegas likes Buffalo a lot in this game and they think it will be low scoring. Vegas knows what they are talking about; Lehner is a very competent play in net for you tonight.
Corey Schneider (New Jersey Devils vs OTT)
Schneider’s last four games have been outstanding. He’s 3-1-0 with a 1.75 GAA and .943 save percentage over those games. Ottawa is pretty up and down on offense but I trust the Devils, and Schneider, at home quite a bit. The Senators have only scored eight goals over their last five games (1.60 goals per game) and have been shut out twice over that time span. If there ever was a game for Schneider to hit 30 saves and a shutout, it’s tonight. He’s very reasonably priced; I like him a lot.
Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 (I’m always available for questions of conversation) and good luck tonight with your One Time Daily Fantasy Shot!