The One Time Shot (NHL GPP): March 18, 2017
March 18, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Opening Ceremonies
You can find The One Time Shot on most Thursdays and Saturdays for the entire NHL season. I’m also writing a weekly column that will post Monday that is similar my Next Week’s Values Today article where I look at some contrarian plays that might make their way into your lineup during the next seven days. Of course, I’ll be on Twitter all the time to answer any questions you may have and to give my thoughts on that night’s slate.
I invented a stat (let me live my dream). It’s called SABS. SABS stands for “shots and blocked shots.” It’s a stat I use to help me justify my defensive picks. I think it’s fetch. I’m also trying to make fetch happen. I think it’s important you know this because I say SABS a lot when I write.
I feel like recently I’ve gotten away from what this article is supposed to be about as a lot of my picks have been leaning chalky lately and that was never the intent when I started this article two years ago. This is not to say that you shouldn’t use the chalk plays, it’s just that we don’t really need to discuss them. Going forward I’m going to try to put a stronger emphasis on some of the more overlooked plays of the day instead of just firing chalk at you. I want this article to give you a different perspective on your lineups instead of being a blueprint to make lineups (we’ve got Cheat Sheets for that). I’ll be sure to reference the chalkier plays each day but the main focus is going to lean heavily towards the HuLo end of the spectrum. One more thing to keep in mind with this refocused philosophy – HuLo plays are far from a sure thing so we are going to miss more than we hit, but when we do hit we should hit big.
Once again, thank you for coming along for the ride. Now on to the picks!
The Starting Lineup – Stacks
There honestly aren’t a ton of HuLo type stacks that I’m going to be riding with today. There just isn’t a ton that I can justify based on the matchups. I’m going to be riding Edmonton a lot today but I’ll throw a few HuLo looks in there to help even out the ownership percentage.
These are the two teams I’m going to be looking at to do that with:
Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers (Cam Talbot – expected goalie)
Hey, why not go with a game stack here? I can see Edmonton piling up the goals (despite what I’m going to try to justify in the Between the Pipes section) but that doesn’t mean that Vancouver can’t get their share as well. I can see this being a 7-3 type game. If that’s the case, then you’re in pretty good shape if you have some exposure to the Canucks side of things. Every time I look at Vancouver I flip-flop between a Sedin stack or a Horvat/Baertschi stack. Today I’m flipping back to the latter as they should be able to avoid the big defenders of the Oilers more than the Sedins will. You can get both Bo and Baertschi for about the same price as using McDavid so that’s a pretty nice value if all three end up going off.
Ottawa Senators vs Montreal Canadiens (Carey Price – expected goalie)
Just when you thought that Carey Price was fixed he goes out and gives up three goals in his last game. Now, I know that a tilt against the Blackhawks is different than facing the Senators but Ottawa is at home today and they do have some firepower at the forward position. Kyle Turris has taken seven shots on goal in the two games he’s played since being out with a minor injury. The problem with using him is that you can’t really use his line mates as Bobby Ryan and Ryan Dzingel have combined for only three points in their last 10 games. I want more upside than that, but I still want to use Turris. Therefore, I’m looking to the power play where I find Turris skating with Mike Hoffman (10 points over his last 10 games) and Alexandre Burrows (six points over his last 10 games). This pair is pricier than Ryan and Dzingel but their productivity level makes them well worth the investment.
Chalk Stacks: Washington Capitals, Edmonton Oilers, Chicago Blackhawks
3 Stars of the Night – HuLo players (High upside, Low ownership)
Christian Dvorak (ARI – C): Dvorak has picked up a point in each of his last two games and has a nice enough home matchup against the Blues. I know that Jake Allen has seen some success recently but he’s league average, at best, on the road with a 2.59 GAA. I’m not running to grab Coyotes (hence my omission of them from the HuLo stacks) but if I wanted a punt with some upside then Dvorak makes for a reasonable play. He’s actually in my personal lineup for tonight so I can fit in all those high-priced Oilers.
Rickard Rakell (ANH – C): Anaheim is on the second night of a back to back, they are heavy underdogs, and they play a late game tonight (out of sight, out of mind). This could lead to a lower than deserved ownership for some of their better players. When it comes to efficiency, few players are better on the Ducks than Rakell. He’s taking more than three shots per game over his last 10 games and has 10 points during that span, yet more people are interested in guys like Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, etc than Rakell. While Rakell may be a bit pricey, that high price will further keep his ownership down, making him a great play for a contrarian lineup.
Elias Lindholm (CAR – W): Lindholm is on a five game point scoring streak and is actually playing really well. What I like about this streak is that he’s averaging nearly three shots on goal per game over the span of those five games. I’ve always worried about using Lindholm because of his lack of aggression with the puck but if can keep popping off three shots a game then his upsides surely increases, as evidenced by his recent run of good play. Nashville isn’t a great matchup but they’re far from a death sentence either.
The Blue Line – Defensemen to target
Johnny Oduya (CHI): Despite ending his modest two-game point scoring streak in his last game, Oduya still hit value due to his high level of SABS. He has seven SABS on Thursday night, six of which were blocked shots. He’s a machine when it comes to recording SABS, relative to his price point, and against an aggressive Toronto team he should be in line for another high floor type of game. Let’s not forget that no team gives up more points to opposing defensemen than the Maple Leafs, and while Oduya isn’t the highest ceiling option for Chicago, he does provide a solid return on your investment.
Andrej Sekera (EDM): Over his last two games Sekera has two points and 12 SABS. That’s a really high level of play for a guy priced in the lower mid-tier. I love Edmonton today and think they get everyone involved. It wouldn’t shock me to see Sekera continue his point scoring streak. He’s a must for me today if you’re stacking Oilers.
Jay Bouwmeester (STL): Far from a high end play, Bouwmeester has had himself a very nice four game run. Over that time span he’s only recorded a point but he’s backed that up with 24 SABS; an average of six per game. That’s incredible for a player priced as cheaply as him. He should be able to continue his nice run against a Coyotes team that gives up a lot of points to opposing defenders.
Chalk D: Duncan Keith (CHI), Brent Burns (SJ), Shea Weber (MTL), Alex Pietrangelo (STL)
Between the Pipes – Goalies to target
Corey Crawford (Chicago Blackhawks @ TOR)
I’m always warry of using a goalie against the Maple Leafs because they come at you from so many different angles. They just won their last game 5-0 and you definitely run the risk of that happening again tonight. Vegas agrees with my apprehension as the Blackhawks, the far better team, are basically a pick ‘em in this game. That might scare some people away from Crawford, thus making him a nice HuLo GPP play. Over his last 10 starts, Crawford has given up more than three goals only once. While three goals against isn’t a great game, it should be enough to help Crawford secure that ever important win bonus.
Mike Condon (Ottawa Senators vs MTL)
Montreal may be the favorite in this game but they’ve lost two of three after winning the previous six games. MTL has some injuries they’re dealing with up front so they might not be at full strength with their forwards in this game either. With another game tomorrow against Ottawa, it’s not inconceivable that they’re going to sit a couple players today. Over his last three starts, Condon has only given up six total goals on a total of 106 shots. That’s an average of 35 shots seen per game. The more shots Condon sees, the better chance he has of a big score. I look for MTL to pepper him today, even with the injuries, and for Condon to respond with a fourth straight two goals against effort. If he can do that then he’ll be in line to pull out this game as a heavy underdog.
Richard Bachman (Vancouver Canucks @ EDM)
Did I pick Bachman for this list just so I can call him Richard Bachman Turner Overdrive and make a ton of bad puns? Let’s just say I didn’t not do that. Look, there’s a very large chance that using Bachman blows up in your face but sometimes, in a GPP, you have to just Let it Ride. In his first start, Bachman looked outstanding, giving up only 1 goal on 45 shots on goal. He posted a monster score and probably helped someone crush their tournament. If he’s Takin’ Care of Business again today, then you’re good to go because nobody is using this kid against a high-powered Oilers offense. What if he’s the next big goaltender? What if he’s the next Andrew Hammond, late season super goalie? What if, by the end of the night, Bachman looks into the camera and says, “You Ain’t Seen Nothin Yet?” If he does, then you might be screaming, “Gimme Your Money Please.” And if he flames out, as expected, Take it Like A Man. Just remember, win or lose, I’m always Lookin’ Out For #1.
Chalk Goalies: Devan Dubnyk (MIN), Jake Allen (STL), Martin Jones (SJ), Cam Talbot (EDM)
Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 (I’m always available for questions of conversation) and good luck tonight with your One Time Daily Fantasy Shot!