The One Time Shot (NHL GPP): March 2, 2017
March 2, 2017 | Doug Shain
The Opening Ceremonies
You can find The One Time Shot on most Thursdays and Saturdays for the entire NHL season. I’m also writing a weekly column that will post Monday that is similar my Next Week’s Values Today article where I look at some contrarian plays that might make their way into your lineup during the next seven days. Of course, I’ll be on Twitter all the time to answer any questions you may have and to give my thoughts on that night’s slate.
I invented a stat (let me live my dream). It’s called SABS. SABS stands for “shots and blocked shots.” It’s a stat I use to help me justify my defensive picks. I think it’s fetch. I’m also trying to make fetch happen. I think it’s important you know this because I say SABS a lot when I write.
Once again, thank you for coming along for the ride. Now on to the picks!
The Starting Lineup – Stacks
The Obligatory Sabres Stack
Buffalo Sabres vs Arizona Coyotes (Mike Smith – expected goalie)
It would be a One Time Shot if I wasn’t pimping the boys from South Canada (because really, Buffalo is SOOOO Canada). The Sabres aren’t a really powerful team but they’ve been consistent in who has been doing the scoring for them. You can feel pretty safe if you’re rolling out a lineup that has some combination of Jack Eichel, Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, or Ryan O’Reilly. I know that you’re not going to be able to use all five but I’m really not opposed to any trio you make out of those five in this game. I might limit myself to Eichel/Kane if this was a tougher matchup but this is Arizona on the road, and Arizona on the road is not a very good hockey team. Mike Smith has a 3.19 GAA on the road this year and has given up 10 goals over his last two road games. Gun to my head and I’m going Eichel, Okposo, and Reinhart.
The “Holy Cow Forsberg is on Fire” Stack
Nashville Predators @ Montreal Canadiens (Carey Price – expected goalie)
Holy cow Forsberg is on fire! He has 14 points over his last six games, including FOUR 3-point games. You know how I say I like to ride the hot streak?? There’s a big arrow pointed right at the name of Filip Forsberg. If I’m going to use Forsberg, and you darn well know I am, then I’m taking Viktor Arvidsson (six points/14 SOG last five games) and Ryan Johansen (nine points the last five games) along for the ride with me. You know what? I’m also going to include Roman Josi (either as a fourth or as a replacement for Arvidsson) since he has 15 points (AS A DEFENSEMAN!) and SIX multi-point games over his last 10 outings. How does one not use Nashville at this point regardless of ownership???
The Game Stacks
Minnesota Wild @ Columbus Blue Jackets
There are few teams that are playing better than the Minnesota Wild right now. They just put up a huge game with Zach Parise and Jason Pominville out of the lineup with the mumps. Those are two of their five best offensive players. They are rolling right now and I want to definitely get my exposure to them tonight in some way, shape, or form. There are so many different ways you can go with MIN right now but I’d love to find a way to justify a cheap stack of Martin Hanzal, Jason Zucker, and Ryan White. All three are really inexpensive and all three come into this game playing well. I know they don’t play on the same lines together but at the price you’d pay to stack them, you might not need to worry about doubling up on points (and we don’t know exactly how lines are going to shake out after morning skate today). I kind of like getting sneaky and using this configuration rather than spending up for the bigger names.
For Columbus, I’m going the exact opposite way. I’m spending all the way up for their biggest names. That means I’m going to take a look at Alex Wennberg, Cam Atkinson, and Nick Foligno. These three skate on the power play together and their upside is through the roof. I know that we lose some even strength time together with Atkinson being on the second line but one of the best power play lines in hockey and if I’m going big, I’m going all the way big.
Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers
I’m a little surprised by the low 5.0 Vegas total on this game given that both offenses go two lines deep and that neither goalie has been playing all that well as of late. Roberto Luongo has posted a 3.64 GAA over his last 10 games and has admitted that James Reimer deserves to start ahead of him. Michal Neuvirth has giving up 16 goals over his last four games, including three games of 4+ goals allowed. This is one of those classic “Doug thinks he knows more than Vegas” games. I’m not often wrong in these cases and most times when I think the total is wrong, it’s wrong.
If I’m stacking Florida I’m going to look at their top line of Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, and Jaromir Jagr. Both Hubbie and Barkov has 10 points in their last 10 games, while Jagr had a goal his last time out and has points in six of his last ten games. They’re not overly expensive and I can see them putting up a crooked number in today’s matchup. For the Flyers I’m definitely starting off with Wayne Simmonds (two goals in his last game; 30 SOG over his last ten games) and I’m going to line him up with Jakub Voracek (3.6 SOG/game over his last 10 games) and Brayden Schenn (five-game point scoring streak). Bet the over.
The Chalk Stacks
Dallas Stars vs New York Islanders (Thomas Greiss – expected goalie)
San Jose Sharks vs Vancouver Canucks (Ryan Miller – expected goalie)
Washington Capitals vs New Jersey Devils (Corey Schneider – expected goalie)
Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche (Calvin Pickard – expected goalie)
3 Stars of the Night – HuLo players (High upside, Low ownership)
Travis Zajac (NJ – C): Quick, who has 11 points in their last 10 games for the Devils? If you said Zajac, you’re a cheater that read the name before the questions. But yeah, it’s Zajac. He’s been on fire for the Devils lately and nobody knows it. He’s not going to be a hot play tonight against Braden Holtby and if you’re a “ride the hot streak” kind of player, then he’s someone you want to take a look at to differentiate your lineup from all the other Dallas/Ottawa stacks.
Alexandre Burrows (OTT – W): So I read that Burrows is working on the top line after getting moved to Ottawa along with Turris and Hoffman (it’s right on DK, no secret here) and I suddenly get interested. I see his price and I’m more interested. I see his matchup (against Colorado) and I totally buy in. This is your punt play du jour. Burrows isn’t the most talented player but at near min-price, on a top line, in a prime matchup he sure becomes a lot more appealing.
Jarome Iginla (LA – W): Send it in Jarome….is what we will all be shouting as he skates on the second power play unit (hopefully) for the Kings tonight. The Maple Leafs are not known for their high level of goaltending and Iginla is going to be highly motivated playing on a contender. He’s not a sure thing by any means but the old man still has some fire in him (see what I did there?? Flames reference) and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see the old face in a new place start off with a bang.
The Blue Line – Defensemen to target
Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF): Arizona is terrible. Ristolainen plays like a forward (seven points/30 SOG his last ten games). Buffalo is going to score in this one. He’s cheaper than Burns or Josi but could give you the same upside (for a lot more risk).
Jake Muzzin (LA): No team gives up more fantasy points to opposing defenders than the Toronto Maple Leafs. You could really go with any of the big three LA defensemen here but Muzzin will probably be the lowest owned and he gives you the best shot to pile up the SABS. If you feel like you’d be better off with Alec Martinez, I don’t see any reason not to make that switch. I don’t think I’d pay up for Drew Doughty as he doesn’t score enough to justify his elevated price tag.
John Klingberg (DAL): Klingberg has been playing very well lately with six points and 32 SABS over his last 10 games. This game has the highest Vegas total tonight at 6.0 and the Islanders give up the second most fantasy points to opposing defenders in the NHL. I don’t know if I want to spend up for any Dallas forwards but if I can get the guy that runs the point on the power play then I’m going to feel pretty good about my expected return.
Other options: Dion Phaneuf (OTT), Alex Goligoski (ARI)
Between the Pipes – Goalies to target
Carey Price (Montreal Canadiens vs NSH)
I know, I know, I just recommended the Predators so why do I have Price on here as well? Let’s just call this the ultimate HuLo goalie play. Nashville could not be hotter and Price is coming off one of the worst stretches of his career. If we only look at his last five game though, he’s been the Carey Price we all know and love with a 1.80 GAA and 1 shutout. I’m not saying I’d make this play but if you want to go incredibly contrarian, then Price is definitely a name to look at.
Robin Lehner (Buffalo Sabres vs ARI)
Arizona wasn’t a very good team before they traded away Martin Hanzal. Now they really aren’t a scary offense at all. I know that they still have guys like Max Domi and Radim Vrbata but losing a top line center, even one as mediocre as Hanzal, can take a lot of getting used to for a team. Had Hanzal still been with the team I’d consider this a game that I’d stack both sides of, while without him I want to pound the goalie for Buffalo and take all those yummy points. For his part, Lehner is a halfway decent goalie at home (2.49 GAA with two shutouts) but this game is all about who Lehner is playing rather than Lehner himself.
Craig Anderson (Ottawa Senators vs COL)
Read what I wrote about Lehner’s matchup and double it here. Ottawa is one of the biggest favorites on the board and it would shock me if this game was remotely close. I guess there’s a little fear what MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen get their groove on but that’s about the only threat that this Senators team is going to have to face. If they shut that line down than all the Matt Duchene’s in the world are not going to help Colorado. I could very reasonably see a shutout in Ottawa’s favor in this game. Over his last six games Anderson has posted a 1.83 GAA so he’s no slouch regardless of the matchup, but add in how bad Colorado is and this could be a trouncing.
Tuukka Rask (Boston Bruins vs NYR)
Rask often gets forgotten about when people mention the best goalies in the league but, aside from a cold spell in early February, he’s been incredible this year. Even with the cold spell, and it was very cold, he’s still got a 2.39 GAA for the season. I wouldn’t call him safe tonight but he’s very much in the GPP discussion with the Rangers as his opponent since few people will want to roster him against one of the league’s best teams. Let’s keep in mind that Rask is better this year at home (2.33 GAA) and he’s posted a very tidy six shutouts on the year, so the upside is surely there for a good game. I would never make this recommendation for a cash game (that’s Anderson and Holtby all day long) but this is exactly the type of goalie pick that can win a GPP if he hits for you.
Follow me on Twitter @bankster17 (I’m always available for questions of conversation) and good luck tonight with your One Time Daily Fantasy Shot!